Meghnad Desai

The idea of Pakistan


Meghnad Desai

IIP growth just 0.1% in July; FM says data disappointing

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Industrial output continues to stay flat, with the IIP data showing a rise of just 0.1 per cent in July from a year earlier. While there is growth in consumer durables, this has been weighed down by a marked contraction in manufacturing, mining and capital goods production.

The downturn in the manufacturing sector output, which constitutes about 76 per cent of the index of industrial production, along with the continuing declining trend in key segments such as capital goods and intermediate goods points to a moderation in consumption demand as well as declining investment appetite.

With an immediate rebound in manufacturing activity unlikely in the absence of efforts to address structural deficiencies, the corporate sector has renewed its clamour for at least a 50 basis point cut in key interest rates when the central bank goes in for its policy review next week. The stock markets, though, shrugged off the flat IIP number and clocked gains on Wednesday, with the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex reclaiming the 18,000-mark after six months.

Terming the data as "disappointing", Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is actively engaged with the industry on ways to tide over the constraints that are holding up industrial production. "These IIP estimates reveal that the performance of the economy continues to be disappointing... While the General Index for July 2012 (over July 2011) is positive at 0.1, it is too early to claim that this is a sign of a turnaround," he said in a statement.

On a sequential basis though, July's growth at 0.1 per cent is an improvement over the 1.8 per cent contraction recorded in June. According to the figures released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday, the IIP, during the April-July period, shrank by 0.1 per cent.

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