Naveen Patnaik has been in active politics for just 12 years: a year as a backbench MP, two years as a Union cabinet minister and nine years as chief minister of Orissa. Yet, he has been one of India’s most underestimated politicians. When he assumed the mantle of Biju Patnaik, many of his party colleagues reckoned he would be a complete pushover. The BJP, his alliance partner until last Sunday evening, mistook his understated style for permanent acquiescence. Unable to fathom his aloofness and reticence, not to mention his infrequent appearances in Delhi, the national media relegated him to the inside pages. In an age of flamboyant chief ministers, Patnaik ended up being regarded as a bit player with a high profile ambassador in Delhi.

Patnaik’s cold-blooded termination of an 11-year alliance with the BJP last Sunday has suddenly generated interest in one of India’s most successful but enigmatic politicians. Has he, it is being asked, been jolted into secularism after Kandhamal? Has he been taken for a ride by confidants? Or has he developed national ambitions that can’t be accommodated within the NDA?

To many political buffs, Patnaik’s latest move seems whimsical and uncharacteristic of a man who is inherently cautious. Together, the BJD and BJP had hogged the entire anti-Congress space in Orissa for a decade. The pooling of votes and geographical synergy — the BJD dominated the coastal belt and the BJP was strong in western Orissa — ensured that the Congress was kept out of power from 2000 onwards. In 1995, the Congress swept into power with 80 of the 147 Assembly seats and 39.1 per cent votes because the anti-Congress vote was split between the Biju Patnaik-led Janata Dal (35.4 per cent) and BJP (7.9 per cent). In 2000, however, the BJD-BJP alliance won 106 seats and 47.6 per cent votes against a Congress which could manage only 26 seats and 33.8 per cent vote. It was the same story in 2004, when the BJD-BJP combine won 93 seats and 44.5 per cent; the Congress won just 38 seats with its 34.8 per cent vote.

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