In such circumstances, the incumbency factor will favour the opposition and adversely affect the ruling party in an election. The loan waiver for farmers, tax reduction for the middle classes and pay commission recommended hikes in salaries for government servants will all be distant memories — evelopments taken for granted by the voters. The fall in rowth rates and possible inflation continuing into the next year are issues that will agitate the electorate.

Therefore, it is in the interest of the NDA to allow this government to last its full term. Advani has also signalled that under certain conditions — which are redundant for a self-confident sovereign nation but still easily accomplishable — the 123 Agreement may not be opposed.

There is also perhaps a hint that, given their interest in having the elections preferably in 2009, the NDA may not vote out the government but will let it carry on as a minority government, as it did in the early period of Narasimha

Rao’s tenure. If this were to happen, what could be the Left’s strategy?

Perhaps to have the 123 Agreement finalised by the government, with no opposition from the NDA, and the UPA continuing as a minority government till the end of 2008.

Nandigram would become a memory and so would the largesse to farmers, the middle classes and government servants. The Left could still boast of having opposed American imperialism and may still hope to get one of the nuclear power plants for West Bengal after the completion of the 123 Agreement.

... contd.