What are the interests of the UPA? Elections in 2009 will in all probability be less favourable.

While Manmohan Singh and his economist colleagues may appreciate this risk analysis does the ‘aam’ parliamentarian go along with them? Most parliamentarians are familiar with the established probability that half of them may not get re-elected. They relate their success or failure to local factors such as the caste and communal arithmetic as formulated on the ground and not to issues such as global recession and its impact on India, world food grain prices, the oil price, and so on.

Consequently, they would tend to be in favour of being MPs till the last possible date rather than take risks on the basis of long-term calculations that go beyond the familiar local factors. Therefore, this becomes a leadership test for the UPA.

It is not in the interest of the Left or the NDA to allow the UPA to enact any measures that would enhance its popularity in the last year of this Lok Sabha. Thus, it is futile for the UPA leadership to expect that they will be able to achieve more than what they have done with the present budget. The UPA will also have to take into account the international economic situation in the coming months and its constraints on the Indian economy. Advani has clearly indicated that the core issue for the next election will be rising prices, and not the nuclear deal. That seems to indicate that the NDA’s calculations are based on the economic situation worsening from now on. The NDA leadership is aware that the NRI community in the US attaches a lot of importance to the Indo-US nuclear deal and it is not in the interest of the NDA — financially and otherwise — to alienate the NRI or for that matter major Indian business houses on this issue.

... contd.