This week,at his biggest show of strength since losing power in Bihar nearly eight years ago,Lalu Prasad exhorted Muslims never to allow divisive forces to come to power in Delhi,and derided Nitish Kumar as a parrot of the BJP and the RSS. A cross-section of Muslim opinion in the state,however,appeared reluctant to agree with him or to readily abandon a chief minister who is widely seen to have delivered for the community. Lalu and Nitish are both like dear sons. But Nitish has proved to be a worthy son and Lalu an unworthy one. It is always safer to trust and invest in a worthy son, said Mohammed Nasim,a businessman in the Muslim-dominated Andhanna village in Noorsarai,Nalanda. Our logic is simple. Nitish has given us peace and better law and order. Now we can go to Biharsharif town even at 2 in the morning. He has given us good roads and started over a dozen welfare and education schemes for us. It is a stable arrangement, he said. The Muslim choice lies at the heart of Bihars biggest political question today. The community has traditionally backed Lalu,but Nitish has made a significant claim on their vote. Muslims make up about 17 per cent of Bihars electorate a demographic fact whose political import is summarised in a slogan on the wall of Nasims shop in Noorsarai: Hum hain to dum hai (You are strong if we are with you). The JD(U)s repeated insistence that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi would not be acceptable as prime minister continues to keep the partys alliance with the BJP in Bihar on edge,the recent lowering of the pitch by JD(U) spokespersons notwithstanding. Muslim voters across the districts of Nalanda,Nawada and Munger gave enough indications of a likely increase in Muslim support for the JD(U),should it decide to break the alliance with the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections of next year. Asked if Lalu might revive his famed MY (Muslim-Yadav) coalition (28 per cent of the population) should the JD(U) and the BJP part ways,Mohammed Muslim,a 55-year-old farmer in Noorsarai,said the majority of Muslim voters were now impressed more by evidence of concrete work than by emotions or slogans. Lalu could not do anything in 15 years,and there is no guarantee he will doing something in future. The BJP in Bihar does not harm us. It does not resist Muslim-centric programmes like the fencing of cemeteries and vocational programmes for minority children,Auzar and Hunar , Muslim said. Lalu,Muslim said,might have an outside chance in case the JD(U)-BJP alliance splits,and a polarisation of the electorate forces the community to look for the candidate best placed to defeat the BJP candidate. If we feel that Nitishs candidate is not good enough to defeat the BJP candidate,we will have no option but to support Lalu,because the primary aim will be to stop Narendra Modi from taking centre stage, Muslim said. Modi upsets and agitates him. Muslim said: We do not want to discuss him (Modi). No true Muslim can think of supporting this man,let alone seeing him as prime minister. Almost every Muslim voter whom The Indian Express spoke to in Noorsarai tempered his praise for Nitish with the complaint that his shrill secularism comes only as polls approach,and he had in fact chosen to contest the 2009 election alongside Hindutvas greatest mascot,L K Advani. At Barghe village in Munger,where 6,000 Muslim voters live,Tariq Anwar,who is associated with the Rahmani Foundation,said: Like certain sections of Hindus,Muslims too have committed voters who support either the RJD or Congress. Others can vote for JD(U),but the BJP can never be an option. In the event of a split in the JD(U)-BJP alliance,Nitish,Lalu and the Congress would all be in the race for the Muslim vote,Anwar said. However,people are happy with Nitish because the government has delivered. At Muslim-dominated Jamharia village in Nawada Lok Sabha constituency represented by the BJPs Bhola Singh,Saifuddin Khan said the politics of polarization might ensure that the benefit of Nitishs split from the BJP goes to Lalu. It is possible that people will come out in bigger numbers in the event Narendra Modi being projected as PM, Khan said. The RJD will gain if the BJP and JD(U) split. Mohammed Saiyad,another villager,said any Congress attempt to fish in troubled waters was unlikely to result in a substantial catch. The choice will be between Nitish and Lalu. Khalid Anis Ansari,a researcher from the University of Humanistic Studies in The Netherlands,who is studying the Pasmanda movement in India,said,There is a clear shift in Pasmanda Muslim vote pattern in Bihar since the 2005 assembly elections in favour of the Nitish-led NDA. Congress and RJD would have to depend on factors like right candidate selections and division of votes with dummy candidates to win over the Muslims. The NDA won 32 of 40 Lok Sabha seats in the 2009 election,and 206 of 243 seats in the 2010 Assembly election.
