For India, Myanmar represents an inconvenient truth. India is today grappling with the contradictions of an ‘internal matter’ having obvious ripple effects for the region. It is being called upon by the international community to play a more meaningful role, as crisis-prone Myanmar remains tense after violent protests last month. Before the crisis of credibility it is facing becomes more acute, India needs to urgently signal course correction. Unbundling the Myanmar question will critically hinge on whether India is willing to recognise that interests, influence and intent constitute three overlapping strands. Does India see these as syncretically linked?

Since the early nineties, India has consciously sought to engage the junta as against a policy of isolation. India argued that it would be counterproductive to base its policy towards a neighbour on a regime-specific criterion. There’s a strategic sub-text to this, as India looks askance at China’s own rapid accretion of influence here. India sees Myanmar as a critical gateway that links the Northeast to its dynamic, extended neighbourhood. India has also been seeking greater transborder cooperation with Myanmar in dealing with insurgency in the Northeast.

It has been backing its interests with influence by manoeuvring itself into a position of relative strength in Myanmar. Sub-regional initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Initiative for Technical and Economic Cooperation and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, moves towards better border management and investments in building ports, roads and railways, have proceeded apace with oil/gas exploration contracts. At the peak of the protests last month in Myanmar, India signed production sharing contracts for three deep water exploration blocks. Earlier, it announced a near doubling of development assistance to Myanmar from Rs 44 crore to Rs 80 crore. India has also signalled a willingness to expand the scope of military cooperation with Myanmar. During Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to that country this January, India conveyed a “favourable response” to the junta’s request for military equipment from India.

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