A warm winter, overflowing stocks and a rather bleak possibility of private purchase amid falling global prices, all’s not well with Punjab’s wheat crop this year. Though the warm spell will adversly affect the wheat output, Punjab’s biggest worry is not shortfall in production but the stocking of the additional over 100 MT of wheat when procurement starts a fortnight from now.

Since the state cannot afford a repetition of last year’s situation when slow lifting of wheat bags from mandis had resulted in farmer protests and flak from political parties, the government is working on both fronts, asking the Centre to move last year’s stocks and hiring additional storage space in advance. From sugar mills to open fields, Punjab is looking at all possible options to stock the wheat and prevent glut of wheat bags in mandis during the crucial poll months.

Notably the good minimum support price (MSP) since last year has seen area under wheat touching 34.93 lakh hectares from 34.6 lakh hectares two years back. But unlike last year, which witnessed a bumper harvest, the winter temperatures in December this year were nearly 2 to 2.5 degree above normal and January was warmer by four to five degrees and this variation is likely to hit per acre yield and overall production.

The warm spell has led to attacks of yellow rust in some parts of the state while there are reports of early maturity, reduced tillering (number of spikes per plant) and the wheat plant not gaining adequate height in other parts. However, the state agriculture department rules out any serious impact of yellow rust and warm winters on arrivals this year. “Though the weather will hit productivity, we are not expecting a major decline and arrivals are likely to be in the range of 102 to 105 lakh metric tonnes (MT),” says Punjab Agriculture Director BS Sidhu.

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