In Pune,H1N1 more severe than other 20th century pandemics

The research has been published online in the May 7 issue of PLoS ONE,which is a peer reviewed open access scientific journal published by Public Library of Science.

Dr A C Mishra,Director of NIV,said that as per the pandemic severity index of the Centre for Disease Control at Atlanta,the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 both fit in category 2,whereas the pandemic of 1918-19 qualified as a category 5. The Pune epidemic of pandemic H1N1 is in category 3 of the severity index.

Of 93 influenza related deaths (during the study period),57 and eight deaths from Pune (urban) and 27 and one death from Pune (rural) were from pandemic H1N1 positive and seasonal-A positive cases,respectively. The case fatality ratio 0.86 per cent for pandemic H1N1 was significantly higher than that of seasonal-A (0.13 per cent) and it was in category 3 of the pandemic severity index of CDC,says Mishra.

Mishra,who was assisted by Dr M S Chadha,Manohar Choudhary and Varsha Potdar in the study funded by the Indian Council of Medical Research,says they cannot predict what way the virus will behave in the second season in India. “As of now it is at a standstill but during monsoon we will have to be alert,” says Mishra.

Till December 2009,worldwide more than 208 countries had reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1,including 9,596 deaths. India has registered over 1,500 deaths and Pune alone has seen 229 deaths till date. Mexico,Thailand and Japan reported higher severity whereas Canada,the US,Australia and European countries treat it at par with seasonal influenza.