Opinion Incumbent reaches out

In Paul Brass’s rigorous analysis of Uttar Pradesh politics,it is fascinating how the complexity and diversity of the entire political and social landscape of this sprawling state was captured through the numerous factions in one political party,the Congress. This was the time when the Congress’s symbol was a pair of bullocks,and while the party long ago lost its single-party dominance,the socio-economic markers of those factions are very much still in play.

In fact,while its partner cowbelt state of Bihar has leapt into the magical “development-driven” phase,where governance transcends the desire for representation,UP has been seen as a caste-driven polity,with Mandal and mandir mobilisations — and the counters to them — retaining strength through the 1990s and most of the 2000s.

With the 2007 elections,a new phase began. For the first time after the fragmented (if empowering) 1990s,one again saw a consolidation of several caste and kin groups,with the BSP being able to push beyond the half-way mark on its own. It meant that the party,once keen to make a virtue of political instability,as dynamic and uplifting,was now the recipient of several groups,anxiously looking for a centre that would hold and consolidate. A big factor in her victory was her promise to restore law and order,an issue that drew in large swathes of even SP supporters. OBCs,Muslims,the upper castes and the urban voters seemed happy to test Mayawati and called for giving the BSP a full term,to see if this would change things.

Now,five years down,Mayawati may not exactly have blundered,but neither has she been able to shake off the reputation for arbitrariness,personality cult and a quid pro quo relationship with the Centre that she acquired in her earlier three stints as chief minister. In any case,she is likely to be the single-most important focus in the forthcoming elections,and she knows it. Her opponents,each convinced that the UP assembly result could reset the national sweepstakes,will raise her record on “delivery”,as well as on law and order issues,especially atrocities against Dalits,the health scam and deaths in custody of some undertrials. In essence,her challenge is this. Unlike 2007,when she was the beneficiary of anger among voters,this time she faces the challenge of inviting voters to reward her incumbency. In fact,for the first time in any election campaign undertaken by her party,she is making a pitch for stability and status quo in the state. Therefore,given that her vote drifted somewhat in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections,she is undertaking a very well-thought-out programme to try and again aggregate and add up the vote.

Her letters to the prime minister are aimed at neutralising the Congress offensive. She’s asked for Muslims to be given reservation after “amending” the Constitution,something she says can only be done by the Centre,therefore putting the onus on the Congress-led UPA. The appeal for Jats (not a traditional BSP support base) to be recognised as OBC is a counter to the Congress’s exertions over the Bhatta-Parsaul affair. And it is no secret that both the Congress and the BJP see a return of the upper castes to their respective folds as being crucial.

Interestingly,the move is smarter that her somewhat defensive explanation about her “developmental” record through full-page advertisements. She is now attempting to weld representation with what are termed as “developmental” issues,with a candour only she can get away with. Other parties in the state perhaps cannot be so direct and clear in their sectoral appeals,shaky as they are about who or what is their own basic vote.

This is especially so because after a long time each political party in UP is attempting to aggregate votes and go beyond its traditional core. The SP is unsure of how the non-Yadav and Muslim vote will go after being stunned by the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls,especially in western UP. The BJP is unclear how far it should go to keep its core “Hindu” upper caste vote happy,as it is hesitant about kicking off consolidation against the party. Of course,getting relevant and good local candidates is very key to the battle. But after 2007 and 2009,it is clear that political parties are keen to broaden their bases rather than just deepening support. In fact,being seen to be broadening one’s base is a pull factor to attract new voters.

How far each formation can go in wooing “others” will be decisive in the assembly elections. In the absence of large waves and mood-changing themes and with seat-adjustment between any of the four big players (BSP,SP,BJP and Congress) looking unlikely,this may just be the one factor that trumps all others.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com