Prime Minister Manmohan Singh might have a small opportunity to gauge the thinking of the Obama Administration later this month, when he travels to Washington to attend the G-20 summit called by outgoing President George W. Bush. By that time, Obama should have named at least some of his key economic managers and put out some hints on how his Administration might approach the challenge.
If all goes well, the PM should also get some time with Obama. In engaging Obama, the PM should remember that there would be no more ‘free lunches’ for India in the United States, which is facing some real pain at home. India will have to give some to get some.
More important, an Obama Administration will now expect that India, as a rising power, is prepared to take on more responsibilities for the management of the global order. That, in turn, means India can no longer afford to simply duck major international issues. Meanwhile, here is a checklist that the PM might want to tick if he does meet Obama in Washington.
Free Trade
India, like the rest of Asia, knows that Democrats are more protectionist than Republicans, who are free traders by ideological conviction. Throughout his presidential campaign, Obama, in his effort to woo the Democratic Party’s working class base, made frequent noises against America’s free trade agreements.
Some of his aides, however, suggested with a wink and a nod that what the candidate says before the elections need not necessarily become policy when he assumes office. Obama’s Democratic predecessor in the White House, Bill Clinton, successfully pushed the North American Free Trade Agreement through the US Congress with the support of Republicans and a small section of Democrats in 1994.
America’s economic situation is of course a lot grimmer now than in the mid 1990s and Dr Singh would want to get a sense of Obama’s instincts on trade, outsourcing and immigration that concern many Indians. In seeking Obama’s support on free trade, Dr Singh may have to signal India’s willingness to bring the Doha round of trade negotiations to a successful conclusion in the not-too-distant future.
Nuclear Proliferation
Many leading Democratic Congressmen, especially Obama’s Vice-Presidential pick, Senator Joseph Biden, strongly supported the historic civilian nuclear deal with India, despite the fact that it was initiated by an unpopular President Bush. But it is no secret that many leading lights of the Democratic foreign policy establishment, especially the powerful non-proliferation lobby, were deeply offended by the framework of the nuclear deal. They have not reconciled to Bush’s decision to acknowledge the reality and the legitimacy of India’s nuclear weapons. While they cannot undo the nuclear deal with India, the non-proliferation hawks would certainly want New Delhi to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and agree to an immediate moratorium on the production of fissile material, which India has resisted until now.
These proposals might be integrated into a proposed new arms control initiative under Obama that will call for big cuts in existing nuclear arsenals of the nuclear weapon powers, draw India into the global nuclear order through the CTBT and fissile material production ban, and strengthen the non-proliferation regime by a more stringent accounting of nuclear materials worldwide. As he reminds Obama of India’s non-proliferation credentials and its historic support to disarmament initiatives, Dr Singh must offer New Delhi’s full cooperation in promoting a more credible global nuclear order that is consistent with the interests of all major powers and express his readiness to discuss its terms and conditions.
Global Warming
If President Obama does take a major initiative on global warming, India, along with China, must expect a lot more heat from Washington. India has sought to deflect these pressures by saying that it will not exceed the per capita carbon emissions of the industrialised world. This might not wash under an Obama Administration. What India needs to figure out at this stage is how far Obama and the Democrats are willing to go in coping with their own domestic costs of a fundamental restructuring of energy use at home.
Afghanistan
As he turns the US military energies from Iraq to Afghanistan, Obama has already declared that he expects America’s friends to do more for the stabilisation and reconstruction of Afghanistan. India, which already contributes significantly to the economic reconstruction in Afghanistan, should be happy to do more. Given the high priority that Obama has attached to the Afghan crisis, the time has come for the US and India to discuss the possibilities for greater security and political cooperation in Afghanistan.
Pakistan/Kashmir
Any conversation in America on Afghanistan these days leads seamlessly towards Pakistan. Obama has repeatedly argued that without fixing the Pakistan problem, there is no way of defusing the Afghan crisis. Obama also holds that a resolution of the Kashmir question might be necessary to get Pakistan to cooperate on Afghanistan.
On the face of it, Obama seems unaware of the determined effort that Dr Singh has made to improve India’s relations with Pakistan and negotiate a peaceful settlement to the Kashmir dispute. In updating Obama on the peace talks, the Indian Prime Minister has an opportunity to underline India’s shared interests with the United States on engineering a democratic transformation of Pakistan. The PM could also signal India’s readiness to begin a serious conversation with the US on the full range of issues relating to Pakistan’s political and strategic future.
C. Raja Mohan is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and a contributing editor to The Indian Express