"They can cater to the Tamil politicians and benefit from the Tigers' military capability going down without taking too much political risk."

Underscoring India's dual-track approach to Sri Lanka, furious denials erupted from Colombo and New Delhi last month after two Indian radar technicians were injured in a Tiger assault on a Sri Lankan military base.

Rajapaksa later said the men were providing after-sales service to radars India's Bharat Electronics sold to the military. India has also helped Sri Lanka intercept Tiger boats, which it considers a threat to national security, analysts say.

INTERVENTION OUT

Brewing diplomatic tension has been bubbling since the radar fiasco, with ethnic Tamil politicians increasingly echoing the Tigers' charge that the war is ‘genocide’. The LTTE for years has funded politicians in Tamil Nadu.

The threat comes as Sri Lanka, which has vowed to crush the Tigers militarily this year, says its troops are 2 km from the rebel capital of Kilinochchi, a strategic and symbolic target.

On Wednesday, the complaints peaked when 39 legislators from Tamil Nadu state threatened to resign from Singh's ruling Congress party-led coalition if India did not stop the Sri Lankan advance within two weeks.

Stratfor's Bhalla, echoing a widely-held view, said there was no chance of direct intervention given the history India's humiliating 1987-1990 peacekeeping mission, in which it lost more than 1,200 soldiers and was accused of human rights violations.

Sri Lanka's intensified offensive over the last three months has produced the bloodiest fighting since the government officially annulled a 2002 ceasefire in January, and sent 230,000 people fleeing their homes in a growing humanitarian crisis.

... contd.