After the recently concluded bilateral talks between the Indian and US government officials it was stated that the two sides hoped to conclude an US-India agreement for civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries — the so-called 123 agreement — by this year end. It is almost two years since the Indo-US agreement on nuclear commerce was announced on July 18, 2005. Given that the conclusion of the 123 agreement is a precondition for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to take action on amending its own guidelines on nuclear transfer, and the India-IAEA agreement is yet to be worked out and that is a requirement before the 123 agreement can be passed by the US Congress, it is unlikely that the process of allowing civil nuclear commerce by the members of the NSG will be completed before the end of 2007. This, despite the fact that the two countries had held more than a dozen discussions in the past one year on nuclear understanding after the announcement of the separation plan outline in March 2006.

G. Balachandran explains

• What has delayed the completion of the 123 negotiations?

While a number of issues seem to have delayed the process of completing the 123 negotiation, the one issue that has most relevance for Indian national security is the one that relates to nuclear testing by India. However, it would be incorrect to suggest that the issue of testing is only in respect of the 123 agreement. Equally disturbing is the reference to testing by India in all the four alternatives before the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for possible amendment of Paragraph 4 of the NSG Guidelines on nuclear transfers including the one that was circulated by the US government last year.

... contd.