India’s per capita income could cross Rs 10 lakh by 2039

“India has the potential to go from a relatively poor,developing country to an advanced (affluent) economy within 30 years — a single generation,” the Forum said in its report ‘India 2039. An affluent society in one generation’. The Emerging Markets Forum is a not-for-profit venture of the Centennial Group,a Washington-based strategic advisory firm specialising in emerging market economies,with University of St Gallen,Switzerland as its intellectual partner.

According to the report,if India becomes affluent,it might be the world’s second largest economy before 2039,second only to China and surpassing the US. India has the potential to overtake the US within a generation,even though it is only one-fourteenth the size of the US economy today.

“Under our scenario,2039 would have a world very different from the one we see today with per capita incomes averaging $23,400 (in 2007 dollars),nearly three times the $8,500 today,” it said. “Our model suggests that India could accelerate its real GDP growth over the 30 years to around 9.5 per cent a year. At this rate,the Indian economy would increase by a factor of 19 to reach $20 trillion in real terms.”

India has already started down the track of repeating other Asian growth experiences. Comparing India’s per capita income for 1991-2008 shows it has closely tracked China’s experience with a 10-year lag. If history repeats itself,and if India then goes on to track the experience of Japan,South Korea and Taiwan,it will realise the promise of becoming affluent within a generation,it said.