The huge fuss Pakistan created over India’s Baglihar run-of-the-river hydroelectric project on the Chenab has, expectedly, ended as a storm in a teacup. If Islamabad claims a great victory, it is entitled to comfort itself with the cosmetic gains it has been accorded. The fact is that the Baglihar design has been upheld by the Neutral Expert (NE), Raymond Lafitte, as being entirely consistent with the Indus Treaty and modern hydropower technology. The project can now move towards completion with marginal adjustments in respect of the freeboard, pondage and power intake as stipulated. These modifications should not cause any undue cost or time overrun and will in no way affect the planned benefits.

The parameters laid down by the NE sets the norm for all further schemes taken up under the treaty and to that extent should curb obstructionist objections against every project mooted by India as in the past. The 1.5 m reduction in the 4.5 m freeboard (essentially a safety device to prevent overtopping of the dam in the event of sudden storm surges) mandated by the NE was in fact a concession India had offered even earlier. Indeed, India was confident that all remaining issues could well be resolved, given another round of talks. But Pakistan was not interested in further dialogue and preferred external determination. Delay is quite often tantamount to denial.

Hopefully, Pakistan will now abandon such negativism, which appears driven more by internal politics than the technical merits of its case. There was a scent of this in the reported remarks of the minister and secretary of its Water and Power Development Authority at a press conference on the day the NE’s report was released. They spoke of monitoring compliance in case India reneged and possibly even seeking arbitration if Pakistan came to the conclusion that the award itself was made in violation of the treaty!

... contd.