Inflation to remain high: Morgan Stanley

Inflation is likely to remain high at near 8 per cent levels by December end due to high government deficit and strong growth in rural wages, says a report by Morgan Stanley.

According to Morgan Stanley, high government deficit and strong growth in rural wages (which is growing at around 20 per cent year-on-year for last three years) are key factors keeping inflation expectations high.

"WPI inflation is likely to remain high in the 8-8.2 per cent range until the quarter ended December 2012 and it is expected to 'moderate' to around 7-7.5 per cent level by quarter ended March 2013," the report said.

Wholesale price index-based inflation was at 10-month high level of 7.81 per cent in September.

The report said that RBI is "facing a dilemma on policy action in the current stagflation-type environment". "While growth is slowing, inflation remains a challenge," it said.

The Reserve Bank will come out with its policy review on October 30. The industry has been demanding a rate cut to boost economic growth.

The macro conditions of the country warrant a delay in policy rate cuts, Morgan Stanley said.

"We believe that the policy decision to reduce rates in the next monetary policy review on October 30, will be touch-and-go," the report said.

Trade deficit for September widened to USD 18.08 billion compared to USD 15.6 billion in previous month.

On a three-month trailing basis, the trade deficit widened to 10.8 per cent of GDP in September as against 9.1 per cent of GDP in August 2012.

Elevated level of trade deficit implies that the current account deficit remained high at around 3.8-4 per cent of GDP\ for the quarter ended September this year, the report said.

"The current economic environment, monetary easing is unlikely to help unless it is preceded by adequate fiscal tightening and control of rural wages," the report said.

... contd.

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