In March I ran into an old friend in Damascus, a Syrian businessman close to President Bashar al-Assad. I asked him what he thought would happen in Lebanon. ‘‘It’s not Syria’s problem anymore,’’ he told me. ‘‘You threw us out. We gave Lebanon to Iran.’’

I never thought forcing Syria out of Lebanon had been a good idea. The Lebanese government left in charge was weaker than the one that had been powerless to stop the civil war in 1975. Brutal as its rule had been, it was Syria that put an end to that war with the 1989 Taif accord. Syria kept Hizbollah in check, limiting its parliamentary representation in the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections.

To be sure, Damascus is hardly a benign influence. It arms Hizbollah and harbours violent Palestinian groups. Still, when Syria controlled Lebanon, Damascus was the closest thing America had to a return address for Hizbollah’s terrorists. This was never clearer than during the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847. When passengers were about to be executed at Beirut International Airport, President Reagan appealed to President Hafez al-Assad, who ordered his commanders in Lebanon to gas up their tanks and prepare to crush the militia. Hizbollah released the hostages.

Freed from Syria’s restraint, Hizbollah might soon be hijacking planes and kidnapping people again. If backed by Iranian radicals, it could even go further. Western diplomats may now seek a cease-fire and send in international peacekeepers. Israel may create an ethnically clean ‘‘buffer zone’’ along its northern border. But does anyone really believe the violence will stop? Not likely.

... contd.