Mayawati has enough reason to smile as the long-drawn Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh finally comes to an end. Widely seen as the front-runner right from the beginning, she managed to finish the race on a high note in the eastern part of the state. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS post poll survey (supplemented by an exit poll in the last phase) shows that the BSP has finished this race about 4 points ahead of its nearest rival, the Samajwadi Party. It’s estimated that its overall vote share will be about 29 per cent, while the SP and the BJP are likely to finish at 25 and 22 per cent respectively.

This vote share is not enough to secure an absolute majority for the BSP in a state that has not seen any party get majority in the last 15 years. Yet, a lead of 4 points could translate into a handsome seat tally. The BSP may be able to secure around 160 seats, between 152 and 168 to be precise. The BSP has managed to be among the top two contenders practically all over the state and appears set to dominate Bundelkhand and Western Uttar Pradesh. If the survey findings suffer from a serious response bias, if the BSP voters have been less willing to disclose their voting preference, the party could do even better than projected here.

Facing a strong anti-incumbency, the Samajwadi Party appears to have done well to finish second. Although it appeared to be trailing at the third spot in the initial phases, the SP picked up as the battle shifted eastwards. We estimate that the SP may get between 99 and 111 seats, much below its best performance in 2002. The SP’s votes are concentrated in some areas and therefore it could secure more seats that projected from the same share of votes.

... contd.