In the final analysis, the manner in which Musharraf extricates himself from the current morass will depend to a large extent on the US stance in the matter. Even in the past, when Pakistan went through a similar cathartic crisis — for instance the hanging of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto by General Zia — it was US support to the Pakistani military that swung the balance. From the US perspective, supporting the Pakistani military has been an article of faith and if the immediate tactical priority was the Soviet-Afghan war in the Zia years, it is the Osama bin Laden/Al-Qaeda combine now in the Musharraf reign.

If US policy continues to prioritise the short-term tactical objective over the more normative long-term strategic objective that reflects US values — democracy, for instance — then the current CJ conundrum will in all probability be swept under the carpet after the usual rhetorical flourish. In the event, the basic power grid of Pakistan will remain unaltered, and the relationship with India will be constrained within the existing glass ceiling, notwithstanding the cosmetics that we will witness in the run-up to the April SAARC summit. India’s long-term policies must be guided by an objective assessment of this central element of the Musharraf-Chief Justice impasse.

The writer is a defence analyst