Friday’s vote by the International Olympic Committee in Copenhagen to select the host city for the 2016 Summer Games is too close to call. Any of the four cities — Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo — could win. Here are some reasons each could win and why they could lose:

CHICAGO

Win: The Obama factor: A joint effort from Michelle Obama and President Barack Obama.

• Lake Michigan: Chicago’s picturesque waterfront has venues close to the athletes’ village.

• Low risk: The IOC would have a secure source of TV and marketing income.

Lose: Rio’s romance: Chicago lacks the geographical and sentimental pull of Rio de Janeiro.

• USOC baggage: Long-standing disputes between the IOC and the US Olympic Committee

• Lesser known: Many IOC members are more familiar with the three other cities.

MADRID

Win: Readiness: Madrid says 77 per cent of its venues are ready or under construction.

• Experience and reputation: Madrid has hosted countless top sporting events.

• Samaranch factor: Juan Antonio Samaranch is nearly 90 but still has influence.

Lose: Geography: The 2012 Olympics will be in London; the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi, Russia. The IOC might hesitate to take the games to Europe again in 2016.

• Rio rivalry: Spanish Olympic Committee vice president Jose Maria Odriozola reportedly ranted that Rio was “the worst” of the candidates.

• No Obama figure: King Juan Carloslacks the star power of the new American president.

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