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‘It’s quite clear monetary policy has to be supportive. We mustn’t allow interest rates to rise’

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  • Montek
    Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission

    No, no, because I think in the first six months if you look at GDP numbers, it came to an average of about 7.7%. For the year as a whole it’s supposed to be about 7.1. This means that in the second half, it’s about 6.5 or something like that. Now 6.5, even if you said on an annualised rate....

    But it’s a declining curve.

    Yes, it’s still declining but that doesn’t actually surprise me. Please remember that the crisis is usually dated from the middle of September when Lehman Brothers collapsed and you had a massive crisis of confidence around the world. I mean the world economy was slowing down even earlier but nobody called it a crisis. So after mid-September it’s been bad news for everybody and it’s been bad news for us. The real issue is if you take the second half of the fiscal year as 6.5, can we stabilize at 6.5 for 2009-2010? Can we through additional stimulus maybe do a little better? Those are the real challenges. And I think, in the second half, the damage that was going to be done on exports was pretty evident. So the question is: is it going to be any worse in the second. Maybe not.

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    But have we done everything we could have done?

    Well, first you should never claim that you’ve done everything. In an ideal world, maybe you could do a little bit more but let’s look at what we could do. In the area of monetary policy, I think we’ve done a lot and I think the Reserve Bank still has room to do more. Part of the strategy of being cautious was not to shoot every bullet in the gun right at the beginning. So they actually wanted to have some reserves and they have a lot of instruments for reserves.

    ... contd.

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