Most urban voters are likely to vote for the Democratic Party; rural voters, on the other hand, are likely to vote for the PPP, mainly because it is seen as close to Thaksin, the leader they like very much. The PPP has a very strong presence in the North and the North Eastern provinces, which account for a majority of the seats, while the Democratic Party is strong in the southern region, with sizable population of minorities, mainly Muslims.

Traditionally, the TRT party had a strong presence in the North and North Eastern provinces; voters in the southern region have always been sympathetic to the Democratic Party. The other smaller party, the Chart Thai Party, has some presence in the central region.

The love and hate relationship with Thaksin is not limited only to voters: it extends to government officials too. The people in power, the caretaker government, the military — none of them would like the PPP to win, for it would mean the return of Thaksin rule, with the PPP government likely to even drop most cases against him.

The Election Commission of Thailand is also not seen as playing an impartial role: it is seen as the force behind trying to prevent PPP from winning election. There are fears the party may even be banned a few days before election.

But can strict enforcement by the government machinery, aimed largely at preventing PPP from winning elections, really work, given the fact it enjoys huge support among rural people? Thaksin’s popularity with the rural population is chiefly due to his pro-poor policies, such as a 30-baht health policy. The corruption charges do not worry them.

... contd.