THE outlook remains far rosier than two years ago. Violence has dropped to the level of a few months after the American invasion in 2003. Voters are likely to turn out in large numbers for a general election scheduled for January 16th. So far, the main electoral alliances are being drawn from across the sectarian spectrum. It has yet to be determined whether Iraq will be Islamist, federal or centralised in character and constitution. But most politicians seem sincere in insisting that this will be decided by parliament and not by force. The insurgents are too weak to overthrow the newly emerging order. They control no swathes of Iraq, as they once did. There are some dangerous areas, but the Iraqi forces can go more or less where they please.

Even so, the continuing presence of 120,000 American soldiers still underpins security, though they stopped patrolling the streets in July. But Barack Obama this week reassured Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, who was visiting Washington, that all American combat troops would be out by the end of next August and that all troops would have left by the end of 2011.

Many American officers are worried, however, that the relative lull will not last, especially as the election campaign hots up. Insurgents, some of them tied to al-Qaeda, have carried out some hideous suicide-bomb atrocities recently. They may increase their efforts immediately before, during and after the poll. “There is no question al-Qaeda is working against a successful election,” says General Raymond Odierno, America’s senior commander. “By launching attacks, they hope to undermine people’s faith in the institutions of the government of Iraq.”

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