In this context, both sides are working to ensure that the IAEA and NSG process are combined to save time. Key to this effort is that India confirms the safeguards agreement to IAEA Secretariat before July 15. Once the agreement is submitted, sources said, it will not only be passed on to the IAEA Board of Governors but also put up on the IAEA’s intranet system which is accessible to all IAEA members.
In effect, the India-specific safeguards agreement will be available to all 45 countries of the NSG as they are also IAEA members. Within a week, the US could circulate an agenda calling for a special NSG meeting sometime in early September. Along with it, the draft of a “clean” exemption containing no reference to nuclear testing could also be circulated.
As a result, the 45 days that these NSG countries have often indicated as a minimum requirement can start within days of India confirming the safeguards agreement to IAEA. The key issue for NSG members has been that many of them have stringent domestic laws on non-proliferation and any such exemption would have to be debated internally.
With the IAEA agreement and the draft of the NSG exemption in hand, these countries can start their internal processes. While this is the tricky bit for the nuclear deal, India and US will look to use all their diplomatic levers to obtain the NSG clearance in terms that are acceptable to both countries.
As for the IAEA process, officials do not foresee a major obstacle given the technical nature of the agreement. If matters move smoothly, IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei can convene a special meeting of the IAEA Board within three weeks of India confirming the agreement.
The plausible date could then be in August first week. In case some countries press for more time, the meeting can be held in September just before the NSG meets. In either case, it would have to be a special board meeting as the next IAEA Board is, otherwise, scheduled to meet on September 22.
For all the difficulties involved in getting 45 NSG members on the same page by early September, India and US will have to combine efforts to ensure this target is achieved as there are not many reliable fallback options.
Listing the 123 agreement in the Congress schedule before it ends the September session is vital to avoid further complications on Capitol Hill. Already, sources said, the Congress is upset at being taken for granted by the Bush Administration on key issues. This will allow the relevant committees to conclude their hearings and bring it for an “up and down” vote in November-December.
With Bush’s tenure drawing to a close next January, the Democrat-led Congress may feel no compulsion to oblige the Bush Administration in the lameduck session except for the fact that the deal does enjoy bipartisan support. More importantly, a future Democrat Administration may be compelled to add fresh conditions to the nuclear deal like signing the CTBT that may kill the deal and turn it into a sour point in Indo-US relations.
In fact, the assessment is that Democrats would be more comfortable with Bush sealing the deal and allowing them to start afresh on a clean slate with India. But first, this best-case scenario has to begin with a fresh political impetus from to the top leadership of both countries and that is why the Manmohan-Bush meeting on June 9 is critical for the last lap of the nuclear deal.
