In effect, the India-specific safeguards agreement will be available to all 45 countries of the NSG as they are also IAEA members. Within a week, the US could circulate an agenda calling for a special NSG meeting sometime in early September. Along with it, the draft of a “clean” exemption containing no reference to nuclear testing could also be circulated.

As a result, the 45 days that these NSG countries have often indicated as a minimum requirement can start within days of India confirming the safeguards agreement to IAEA. The key issue for NSG members has been that many of them have stringent domestic laws on non-proliferation and any such exemption would have to be debated internally.

With the IAEA agreement and the draft of the NSG exemption in hand, these countries can start their internal processes. While this is the tricky bit for the nuclear deal, India and US will look to use all their diplomatic levers to obtain the NSG clearance in terms that are acceptable to both countries.

As for the IAEA process, officials do not foresee a major obstacle given the technical nature of the agreement. If matters move smoothly, IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei can convene a special meeting of the IAEA Board within three weeks of India confirming the agreement.

The plausible date could then be in August first week. In case some countries press for more time, the meeting can be held in September just before the NSG meets. In either case, it would have to be a special board meeting as the next IAEA Board is, otherwise, scheduled to meet on September 22.

... contd.