For all the difficulties involved in getting 45 NSG members on the same page by early September, India and US will have to combine efforts to ensure this target is achieved as there are not many reliable fallback options.

Listing the 123 agreement in the Congress schedule before it ends the September session is vital to avoid further complications on Capitol Hill. Already, sources said, the Congress is upset at being taken for granted by the Bush Administration on key issues. This will allow the relevant committees to conclude their hearings and bring it for an “up and down” vote in November-December.

With Bush’s tenure drawing to a close next January, the Democrat-led Congress may feel no compulsion to oblige the Bush Administration in the lameduck session except for the fact that the deal does enjoy bipartisan support. More importantly, a future Democrat Administration may be compelled to add fresh conditions to the nuclear deal like signing the CTBT that may kill the deal and turn it into a sour point in Indo-US relations.

In fact, the assessment is that Democrats would be more comfortable with Bush sealing the deal and allowing them to start afresh on a clean slate with India. But first, this best-case scenario has to begin with a fresh political impetus from to the top leadership of both countries and that is why the Manmohan-Bush meeting on June 9 is critical for the last lap of the nuclear deal.