Kabul via Rawalpindi

US plans for Afghanistan, laid out at Tokyo, lack a strategy to deal with Pak recalcitrance

Sunday's international conference in Tokyo on future economic assistance to Kabul has rounded off the new American framework to put Afghanistan on its own feet when the bulk of US and allied troops leave by 2014. With US President Barack Obama focused on his re-election this November, no new initiatives on Afghanistan can be expected. The US framework for the transition looks robust but questions remain on whether the current international commitments to Kabul are sustainable amidst the financial and political uncertainty in the western world, the fluidity of Afghanistan's internal dynamic and Pakistan army's determination to extend its influence across the Durand Line.

Obama has sought to reassure Kabul that Washington is not going to abandon Afghanistan. He signalled long-term American commitment to its security and stability by signing a strategic partnership agreement with Kabul that will last for a decade after 2014. Last week, the Obama administration declared Afghanistan as a "major non-NATO ally", a designation that will provide a solid basis for long-term military cooperation between Washington and Kabul. The US plans to leave a small residual military force to train the Afghan armed forces and conduct counter-terror operations against extremist sanctuaries in Pakistan's western borderlands. At the NATO summit in Chicago in May, the US won pledges from its allies for financial contributions — nearly $4 billion a year — to help maintain the Afghan armed forces at about 250,000 troops. The Tokyo conference has complemented the military effort by raising commitments worth $16 billion for the economic development of Afghanistan for the next four years.

Sceptics will wonder if the US and its allies will be able to keep their word amid the fiscal crisis at home and declining popular support for the war in Afghanistan. The biggest threat to Kabul's future comes from the Pakistan army's continuing support for the Taliban and the Haqqani network. Until now, the US has been unable to get Pakistan to either dismantle the sanctuaries it has offered to Kabul's adversaries or encourage the Taliban to negotiate a political settlement with Hamid Karzai. Pakistan's recalcitrance is rooted in Rawalpindi's search for what it calls "strategic depth" in Afghanistan. Without a credible American strategy to change Rawalpindi's negative approach to Kabul, the current US plans for Afghanistan suggest the triumph of hope over experience.

ALSO READ

House truths

Catching up

Not so fast

Power for the people