As the new year begins, Africa seems to be slipping into an older mould. In South Africa, a leadership struggle is on; Nigeria is coping with the consequences of a failed election; and now, Kenya is convulsed by ethnic violence. It wasn’t always like this — Kenya was not just another African country. It does not have a history of coups and it has been remarkably stable. Its capital Nairobi has become a base for transnational corporations and economic growth has averaged about 5 per cent in the past four years. It has been ethically divided, of course. The violence that has overtaken the country now, therefore, raises a special worry: Will it be the (largest tribe) Kikuyus versus the rest? Or is there a force within the country that can bridge the divide? Tridivesh Singh Maini plots the ground reality

• What has led to Kenya’s current problems?

The immediate cause of the unrest in Kenya — an East African country with the highest growth rate in Africa — has been the victory of Mwai Kibaki in the controversial presidential elections held on December 27. Kibaki, who leads the Democratic party, was sworn in for a second term as president on December 30 an hour after the controversial results were declared. An economist by training, he belongs to Kenya’s largest tribe, the Kikuyu (there are approximately forty tribes in all) and was first elected in December 2002 — when the Kenya African National Union, Kanu, lost power after four decades.

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