Lahore and Dhaka on the boil: Delhi should play hardball with a soft touch

Our justified anger at cross-border terrorism tends to cloud our ability to work the internal fissures within Pakistan and Bangladesh. It has been tempting to treat these very complex neighbours as hostile black boxes. Large democracies like India,in any case,find it difficult to do nuance.

But the latest crises in Dhaka and Lahore are too interesting to be wasted. The South Block should not allow either the excuse of impending Indian general elections or the pretence of non-intervention in the internal affairs of our neighbours to come in the way of a proactive policy.

For the first time in decades,Indias interests in nudging our two special neighbours towards political moderation,economic modernisation,and regional integration are in tune with those of the international community. That should make it easier for New Delhi to address the many crises in the neighbourhood involving civil-military relations,fratricidal tendencies among the democratic forces,and tensions between different security agencies.

Early this afternoon,the Dhaka mutiny sounded more ominous than Islamabads judicial coup against Lahores Sharif brothers. By late evening it seemed that discontent over pay rather than political conspiracy might have driven the Dhaka developments which were therefore more amenable for quick control.

The events in Pakistan,however,are far more consequential and demand sustained high level attention from New Delhi.

Through Pakistans many crises during 2007-08,which saw the overthrow of its President Gen Pervez Musharraf,the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the installation of a democratic Government,New Delhi chose to remain a silent bystander.

After the Mumbai terror outrage last November and growing signs of Pakistans surrender to the extremist and sectarian forces on its western frontier,New Delhi can no longer afford to remain on the sidelines.

All changes in Pakistans internal distribution of powebetween the Army and the elected Government,President Asif Ali Zardaris Peoples Party and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs Muslim League,the dwindling tribe of secularists and the triumphant Islamists,between the Punjab and other provinces,and the supporters and opponents of the US war against the al-Qaeda and the Talibanhave a definitive bearing on Indias own security.

For all the powerful symbolism of recent events in Swat and the Durand Line where the Taliban is gaining ground,todays events underline the reality next doorthe Panjab is where Pakistans power is won and lost.

As the confrontation between Zardari and the Sharif brothers moves from the courts to the streets,the proverbial three As of PakistanArmy,America and (Saudi) Arabiawould have a great role in deciding the outcome.

Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani,who is currently in Washington for consultations,must decide whether to accept Zardari as Pakistans unquestioned ruler or wink at the Sharif brothers as they challenge the Supreme Court and the Presidency,and wait for the civilian leaders to discredit themselves all over again.

While Washington has no time for the Sharif brothers,it cant simply dismiss Lahores black coats who helped restore democratic rule and have insisted since that Zardari reinstate former Supreme Court chief justice sacked by Musharraf. In the end,the Obama Administration is likely to side with those it believes are reliable partners in Pakistan against the al Qaida and the Taliban. Zardari surely expects Washington to back him.

Saudi Arabia has acquired enormous clout in Pakistans internal politics in recent years and facilitated the return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan. If the House of Saud backs the Sharif brothers,the contest between Washington and Riyadh in Pakistan will be worth watching.

Indias neutrality in Pakistans internal contestations has not generated any goodwill for New Delhi in Islamabad. It then makes sense for the South Block to figure out ways in which it could influence the political outcomes next door in collaboration with other major powers.

(C Raja Mohan is a Professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore and a Contributing Editor of The Indian Express,New Delhi)