Laila unlikely to affect monsoon

Weather scientists said cyclone Laila's behaviour over the next two days would be extremely crucial.

The cyclonic storm Laila reached Andhra Pradesh coastline on Thursday and showed definite signs of weakening but weather scientists said its behaviour over the next two days would be extremely crucial,especially from the point of view of its impact on the monsoon.

The cyclone is most likely to move inland in a northerly direction and dissipate completely over the next 48 hours,bringing rains in Orissa and West Bengal apart from Andhra Pradesh. In such a scenario,the cyclone was unlikely to have much impact on the monsoon,the normal onset date of which is still ten days away.

The current environment conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then re-curve in a north-easterly direction towards Orissa, the Met department said in its cyclone alert.

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But it went on to add that the prediction model also give an outside chance of a re-emergence of this system in the Bay of Bengal,which could be bad news for a normal onset of monsoon.

Experts said the re-emergence,if it happens,would be much closer to the monsoon onset date of May 30,close enough to interfere adversely with the normal monsoon flow.

This cyclone needs to be watched very closely for the next couple of days. The chances of its re-emergence are slim but cannot be ruled out, said a weather scientist.

The fate of Laila was also discussed at a meeting of Committee of Secretaries on Thursday.

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monsoon

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