They say elections in UP are about nothing except caste. But if you look between the numbers from The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS pre-poll, if you take the trouble of asking people what matters most to them while voting, the answer might surprise you: as many as 30 per cent mention development, followed by 15 per cent for price rise, 9 per cent unemployment, 7 per cent for bijli-sadak-pani and so on. Considerations of caste and religion find almost no mention.

Contrast this with hard data which underlines how Uttar Pradesh continues to provides evidence for one of the highest degrees of caste polarization in voting in post-independence India.

About three fourth of Yadav voters are going to vote for the Samajwadi Party, the share of Bahujan Samaj Party among Dalit voters is about the same. The BJP gets about half of upper-caste votes, less than it used to get but three times more than it gets in any other social group. Notwithstanding the high-decibel propaganda, only one in 10 upper-caste voters is open to the possibility of voting for the BSP. A majority of the Muslims are still with SP, though their level of enthusiasm is less than before. Similarly, Ajit Singh continues to attract about half of the Jat voters.

So does this mean that caste determines electoral fortunes? Not quite.

For one thing, all groups counted above still leave out one-third of UP’s voters. These come from peasant OBCs other than Yadavs and Jats and from lower OBC castes. They do not have a party of their own. Their vote can be decisive in a close contest.

... contd.