Also, caste loyalty determines the general level of support of a community or caste for one party. But the level does not remain the same in each election. Parties gain or lose votes across caste groups. For example, in this election, the BSP appears to have consolidated its Dalit vote and gained votes across the upper castes. The BJP has lost a sizable support base, not just among its upper-caste supporters but also among lower OBCs. This shift from established loyalties takes place on the basis of people’s perception of governance and leadership.

Take leaders, for example. No doubt, popularity of leaders follows voting pattern very closely. Yet, there is a shared assessment of the leaders cutting across the party divide. Mulayam is considered good for the overall development of the state, Mayawati is appreciated for being a tough administrator.

Kalyan Singh does not manage to match his rivals in any respect. People do not appreciate anyone in particular for their honesty and trustworthiness. Not even if you look to other leaders outside these three. Amar Singh emerges as the political leader least trusted by the people in the state. So, why is it that Mulayam Singh Yadav is not facing voters’ ire after five years of what appeared like an indifferent rule?

Perhaps because the voters have a more nuanced sense of governmental performance than the analyst or the activist. The voters of Uttar Pradesh do believe that crime and corruption increased during SP’s rule. There are few takers for Amitabh Bachchan’s punch line in the famous ad. In fact the voters directly hold the SP responsible for criminalisation of politics. Electricity and irrigation are also sore points with the voters.

... contd.