Opinion Libyan finesse

In recent days,some of the new leaders of Libya had suggested that China,along with Russia,would be penalised for their strong support to Gaddafi and their unwillingness to support the international efforts led by the West to oust the dictator. While China might lose some in Libya over the short term,Beijing is confident that its policy of dealing with “whoever is in power” will eventually prevail. It is a matter of time before the new Libyans rulers begin to resent Western meddling.

Unlike the preachy West,China gives unconditional aid,and can undertake mega projects on short order. Once they get over the initial excitement of regime change,Beijing bets,Libya will eventually turn to China,which is a very attractive economic partner by any measure.

South Pacific ‘solidarity’

While China is on the back foot at the moment in Libya,its strategic offensive in the South Pacific continues to advance. As China’s profile rapidly rises in the South Pacific,other major powers are scrambling to meet the challenge.

The United States,which had turned its back on the region after the Cold War,sent a delegation of 50 officials to attend the 42nd session of the Pacific Islands Forum in Auckland,New Zealand,last week. Washington has woken up to the long-term implications of China’s growing political influence in the region and is apprehensive of the prospects of a permanent Chinese naval presence in the South Pacific.

In the last few years,China has quickly emerged as the third largest aid donor to the 16 nations of the PIF. It lags behind only Australia and the United States.

There was an attempt by New Zealand,Australia and the United States to nudge China into accepting a common framework for aid donors in the South Pacific. Besides aid,Beijing is undertaking major infrastructure projects,offering duty-free access to the few goods that are produced in the littoral,promoting Chinese tourism in the islands,and hosting South Pacific leaders in China.

At the PIF gathering last week,there was an effort press China to coordinate its aid programme with others and agree to a broad set of common conditionalities. Beijing would have none of it. Cui Tiancai,a Chinese vice-foreign minister attending the forum,argued that China’s contributions are simply an “expression of friendship”. China does not view itself as a “donor” nation to the Pacific countries and defines its outreach there as “solidarity” with the nations of the South Pacific. While it refused to accept a coordinated aid programme with the West,Beijing is determined to wear down the political opposition in Australia and New Zealand — the two regional power of consequence in the South Pacific — through more intensive economic and security engagement.

The minister of state for external affairs Preneet Kaur was in attendance at the PIF last week offering greater cooperation,but Delhi is a long way from embarking on strategic engagement with the region. No Indian prime minister has had the time since Rajiv Gandhi to visit Australia let alone the smaller islands of the South Pacific. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has cancelled plans to attend the Commonwealth Summit in Australia. At a time when the Chinese navy has begun to fly its flag in the South Pacific,the defence ministry has reportedly refused permission to the naval chief,Admiral Nirmal Verma,to visit Australia.

The travel bug

As outbound tourism from China continues to boom amidst the growing prosperity of its people,travel from China to South Asia has grown 21 per cent in the first months of 2011. Since 2005,arrivals from China to India have doubled; Nepal has seen the numbers triple,while arrivals from China to the Maldives and Bhutan have increased five-fold,according to the Pacific Asia Travel Association. In the Maldives for example,China has become the top nation contributing to tourist arrivals. In the first seven months of 2011,tourism increased by 18 per cent to reach 520,483 and Chinese constituted nearly 20 per cent of these.

Increased tourism is also linked to China’s emphasis on building air links to all corners of the subcontinent. Four Chinese carriers now fly into Maldives to transport the tourists.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi