The newfound enthusiasm for the American fashion of a hundred-day programme shows an urgency by Manmohan 2.0,which is refreshing. Of course,the American Presidency is under pressure to perform fast because within two years of election,the mid-term Congressional elections issue a yes/no verdict on the Presidency and the next two years could be a washout. Clinton had a problem in 1994 when he lost Congress to the Republicans and never regained initiative till the end in 2000. We will learn soon about Obama when elections come around in 2010.
India has a continuing series of elections and none is particularly important. How seriously the UPA takes any single defeat or setback depends entirely on the Prime Minister. Narasimha Rao became cautious after 1993 just two years into his Prime Ministership and radical reform came to a halt. It may be that that the Congress is worried that it has a lot of room for manoeuvre up to the West Bengal and UP elections for certain. But beyond that it depends on whether the UPA wins or not. Both Mamata Banerjee,the Trinamool chief,and Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav could turn hostile if the results indicate a weakened mandate for the Congress.
Yet,I suspect there will be little danger for the UPA. It can count on a fruitful five years and the most important thing is not to lose momentum. The programme has to be not just for 100 days but for 1,891 days till the next elections. Issues such as the Womens Reservation Bill will take up a lot of time but if within the UPAas narrowly defined,that is excluding the Yadavs and Mayawatithere is a determination to push it through,then it can be done. The Congress should not be bullied by the argument that only elite women will get elected via this proposition. Elite men have benefited from the de facto 100 per cent reservation for a long time. The panchayat elections have been a good example of womens reservations and it is about time the Centre caught up with the grassroots.
The point is not so much that within the womens quota there should be an OBC quota. What the recent elections,both in the states late last year and the general election this year,show is that identity politics has reached its limits. People of all classes want delivery but also that most often the OBC and SC/ST leadership has been too self-serving and only looked after the creamy layer,mostly its own relatives. We now need to get class issues back into the Mandal debate. Poor people of whatever caste,but in fact,mostly OBC and SC/ST,who have been left behind due to the failure of primary and secondary education provisions,need a helping hand. Their children need immediate attention so that India does not get into a cycle of deprivation.
At the time of Independence,the Congress went for universal adult franchise and a statist economic policy but it sadly neglected social reform. North India was left to the Congress Brahmins to dominate and oppress. The economic development programme was elitist,like the Soviet Union model it had copied. A military industrial machine was created for an aristocracy of public sector workers with crumbs for the remaining 90 per cent. This deficit of 40 years erupted in the Mandal agitations. Now,20 years on,we know the limitations of Mandal. There is enough public revenue to improve matters if we can divorce public delivery from political patronage. Rahul Gandhi should inculcate such ideas into the Congress machinery at state levels wherever the Congress is in power or even aspires to be in the near future.
The one pre-condition for achieving any justice is that the high growth rate must continue,and,if possible,reach double digits. Liberal economic reform is thus complementary to inclusive growth,not an obstacle. The years between 2004 and 2009 were spent in futile battles with the Left,which is still in love with the old elitist programme. Let the UPA love and honour Nehru and the two Gandhis,mother and son. But please dont emulate their economic policies. India cant afford another wasted 40 years.