The US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke’s statement in New Delhi that the US is making no demands on India, and his public disavowal of any pressure on Kashmir, may well be true — in a technical sense. A serious discussion on what India’s next step can be is likely to begin only when Holbrooke succeeds in getting Islamabad to accept the Obama administration’s terms for fighting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. At the moment it is unclear if Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders have the stomach for that arduous fight. Nor is it a secret that there is growing tension between Holbrooke and his Pakistani interlocutors on how to stabilise Afghanistan. The US is demanding Pakistan’s adherence to specific benchmarks in return for a massive increase in its military and economic aid. Pakistan wants American money with no strings attached. Islamabad hopes to continue with the pretence of a fight against terrorism.

India should be fully prepared for some big initial mistakes by the Obama administration and characteristic over-reach by Pakistan’s generals. Notwithstanding Holbrooke’s flattering remarks that India is central to the resolution of the conflict in the region between the Indus and the Hindu Kush, New Delhi should not forget the significant limitations on its potential role in shaping the internal dynamics of Afghanistan and Pakistan. India must however ensure that the Pakistan army is compelled to fight a war on its western borders that it does not want to. That in turn implies that India should not be used as an excuse to the Pakistan army to shift the international focus on to its eastern frontiers.

... contd.