With Governor T.V. Rajeshwar’s notification on Tuesday kickstarting the seven-phased electoral process for the fifteenth assembly in Uttar Pradesh, the air is thick with curiosities about the poll outcome. Will Mulayam Singh Yadav retain power? Can Mayawati dislodge him? Will the BJP stage a comeback here, as in Punjab and Uttaranchal? What are the chances of a Congress revival in UP? How will the RLD figure in these elections? Will the new Muslim Fronts, UDF and LDF, impact the outcome?

We must wait for two long months to get the answers. Despite the scientific methodologies adopted by psephologists, pre-poll and the exit-poll findings may still be off the mark. But the municipal elections held on party lines in UP in October-November 2006 may provide some clues.

There is a caveat, however: Municipal elections are urban phenomena and do not tell us what the rural electorate is thinking. Additionally, the BSP did not participate in that municipal election, distorting the entire outcome.

Contrary to the bipolar nature of the recently held elections in Punjab and Uttaranchal, UP has quadrangular contests in most constituencies, with the BSP, SP, BJP and Congress as major contenders. At some places, even the RLD and UDF-PDF may be potential players. In the 2002 assembly elections, BJP, BSP and SP all had a vote share of 20 per cent-plus with the BSP lead over the BJP at 3.08 percentage points and the SP lead over the BSP at 2.25 percentage points. They all got different numbers of seats but in terms of votes, the contest was close indeed (see table).

... contd.