The BSP had abstained from the municipal elections and opted for tactical voting by the dalits to defeat the SP, and ensure victories for the BJP and Congress, filling them with a false sense of elation, victory and recovery. The BSP is attempting a social coalition with Brahmins through brahmin-jodo sammelans and bhaichara committees to pre-empt a political coalition. In its list of 403 candidates, 86 brahmins have been fielded. Mayawati has also tried to attract the OBCs by giving 110 seats to them. The dalits are somewhat apprehensive of Brahmin dominance in the party, but that may not change their voting preference. If the BSP could retain its vote bank and if the Brahmin votes (approximately 8-9 per cent) could be transferred to the BSP, then that could be a formidable electoral chemistry in UP.

The RLD’s good showing in eastern UP in the municipal elections has emboldened Ajit Singh, and the party is already well entrenched in western UP. The Muslim Fronts — UDF led by Maulana Abdullah Bukhari and PDF led by Maulana Kalbe Jawaad — have the potential to create upsets in several constituencies. The UDF had polled a strong 28000 votes in the mayoral elections in Allahabad in its first appearance. With Mulayam’s minister Yaquoob Quareshi deciding to become a UDF candidate and Azam Khan’s annoyance with Mulayam over the Johar Muslim University, Muslim votes are sure to divide among UDF-PDF, SP and Congress. That could give the BJP an advantage in some cases.

... contd.