The successful test firing of the long-range Agni III missile on Thursday marks the belated maturing of India’s atomic weapons programme and positions India to join the big league of nuclear great powers. Before we thump our chests and wrap the flag around the defence establishment, a few sobering thoughts are in order. They relate to the difficulties we have had in getting here and the new challenges that confront us in going beyond Agni III.

That it has taken our scientists nearly two decades since the first test of the Agni technology demonstrator system in 1989 is a reminder of the many limitations of our missile effort. The problems of organising technological development have been partly compounded by New Delhi’s political vacillation on testing the Agni during the 1990s.

Thursday’s missile test should not obfuscate the contrast between India’s hugely successful civilian space programme and a faltering military one. If Agni III is to underline a radical departure from that mixed record, the political leadership will have to pay sustained attention to the problems in our military space programme.

Since the late 1980s, both China and Pakistan had surged far ahead of us in the missile field. In terms of types, numbers, mobility, range and accuracy, China today has a vastly superior missile arsenal than we do. And thanks to external assistance from China and North Korea during the 1990s, Pakistan too has a powerful and flexible missile capability.

The hype in the wake of Agni III that India now has the longest range missile in South Asia is best taken with a pinch of salt. The claim, of course, begs the question, so what? India’s Agni III, with its presumed range of over 3,000 km, does little to alter the nuclear balance with Pakistan. With its ‘Shaheen’ and ‘Ghauri’ medium range missiles, Islamabad has the capacity to target most major Indian cities. The truth is Pakistan does not need a 3,000 km range missile to deter India’s nuclear forces. Nor does India have much use for Agni III in its strategic calculus towards Pakistan.

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