Both Israeli and Arab analysts believe that Assad needs some change to divert attention from his own problems. “Assad is counting on his negotiations with Israel as a personal lifeline — particularly to silence those who still denounce him for his role in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, hosting Hamas, and funneling weapons to Hizbullah,” noted Israeli analyst Mic-hael Oren. “Signing a treaty with Israel, he thinks, will effectively remove his name from America’s list of terrorist sponsors. It’s difficult to arraign a man — or so the popular wisdom holds — who is in line for a Nobel Prize.”

The consensus among both Israelis and Arabs is that neither Olmert nor Assad have the power to sign a historic peace agreement. Olmert is under heavy pressure because of his alleged involvement in financial corruption, while Assad is seen as a dictator whose only goal is to remain in power.

The writer is former diplomatic editor of the London ‘Observer’

ShyamBhatia@compuserve.com