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Lousy president, terrible precedent

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  • It was a flashback to a nightmare that Latin Americans hoped they had awoken from for good. Heavily armed soldiers burst into the presidential residence in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, in the early hours, arrested the pyjama-clad president, Manuel Zelaya, and bundled him off to neighbouring Costa Rica. Once all too familiar, such events have become rare in Latin America over the past two decades as democracy has put down roots. It was the first coup in the region since the confused ousting of Jean-Bertrand Aristide in Haiti in 2003, and a brief rising against Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez in 2002.

    In Honduras the soldiers acted with the support of the courts and the legislature, whose head, Roberto Micheletti, was sworn in as president to serve out the remainder of Mr Zelaya’s term until January next year (see page 43). Even so, as Barack Obama rightly said, the ousting of Mr Zelaya was “illegal” and set “a terrible precedent”. It was universally and emphatically condemned in Latin America. It is vital for democracy in the region that it should be reversed.

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    But to stop there is to miss some of what is at stake. Mr Zelaya, a businessman, alienated his own party and his country’s political establishment by his decision last year to forge an alliance with Mr Chávez, joining the Venezuelan’s anti-American block. In return, he got aid and political advice. Mr Zelaya felt emboldened to organise a referendum on convening a constituent assembly—the very device Mr Chávez used to establish an autocracy. Since such an exercise violated the constitution and both Congress and the courts were firmly opposed to it, this unleashed a conflict of powers.

    Oddly, the Honduran constitution contains no provision for impeachment. Even so, kicking Mr Zelaya out was wholly the wrong way to try to resolve the dispute. It was stupid, too: Mr Zelaya was fairly unpopular and unlikely to get his way. That it happened regardless shows the deep fear of Mr Chávez among political establishments across Latin America. He is a particular ogre in the small, mainly poor and unstable countries of Central America, which are also beset by drug traffickers. Venezuela’s boss is mistrusted both for his meddling and for the example he has set of coming to power democratically and then stacking the rules in his favour. One of his allies, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, next-door to Honduras, stole a municipal election last November, for instance.

    For change, stick to the electoral road

    Yet fear is turning to paranoia. If many left-of-centre governments, of varying political hues, have come to power in Latin America it is because voters became fed up with their right-of-centre predecessors. Some are now starting to tire of leftist and populist incumbents too. This week Argentines served notice on the Kirchner family that their dominance is over. Would-be election riggers in the region will find it hard to prevent the alternation that is the essence of democracy.

    Honduras’s new government finds itself friendless beyond its borders. Restoring Mr Zelaya to office should not be impossible. It will require economic pressure but also some kind of deal with Mr Micheletti’s regime, perhaps involving an early election. Honduras’s neighbours should help in this respect, as should the United States, which has considerable influence in Honduras and a strong interest in a stable, democratic Central America. By his forthright condemnation of the coup Mr Obama has ensured that he will not be outflanked by Mr Chávez over Honduras. The more difficult question for Latin America is how to prevent over-mighty presidents from undermining their own democratic institutions. Once that practice ceases, coups really will be a thing of the past.

    © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009

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