In any terrorist attack there is an over-determination of motives. Terrorists were tempted by a soft target like India, hoping to cause communal mayhem. But there is also a sense in which this attack is a pre-emptive strike against Obama’s likely foreign policy. That policy was premised upon putting more pressure on Pakistan to cooperate on its western frontier, which in turn depended upon all being quiet in the east. The protean character of terrorism has this uncanny ability to open up one new front each time. The Americans, for their entire prowess, have not been able to control the region. Terrorism is an international problem that demands a coordinated solution. But we have in recent years consistently fallen prey to the illusion that America will treat the terrorism that afflicts us as seriously as it takes its geo-political objectives in Afghanistan.

If we want to test the sincerity of the Pakistani state, and the American resolve to take our problems seriously, we can demand a series of concrete measures (like handing over people against whom we have credible evidence). The US has no serious history of pressuring the Pakistani decision-makers on matters relating to India in a way in which it really hurts. Contrary to the general assumption that this incident will lead the US to put more pressure on Pakistan, the opposite may turn out to be true. The first anxiety in Western capitals is not protecting India’s interests; it is to make sure India-Pakistan tensions do not boil over. In that substantive sense terrorists have re-hyphenated that relationship. But the general point is that we cannot make easy assumptions about global geo-strategy. We will have to do our own thinking. But before we show our bravado we better be sure that we are intelligently prepared for a battle that will have to be long but subtle.

... contd.