Opinion Mandate for the future

The leadership of all three national parties,the Left,the Congress and the BJP,suffered from versions of the same hubris: failing to understand local dynamics. The Left put up a creditable showing in Kerala,against all odds. But it is hard not to speculate on what might have been had the party handled the Achuthanandan issue better. No amount of political strategising by the high command is any substitute for building a party from the ground up. But the biggest statement is against those whose hubris confused the corruption of politicians with the corruption of politics. Our politicians may be corrupt; the voters are not. There is no accountability like political accountability.

If elections tame hubris,they also generate an enormous churning of power. It is not a trivial fact that India will now have four powerful women chief ministers who stand on a political base of their own. Tarun Gogoi has demonstrated in Assam what is generally true of India: those leaders who have an ability to synthesise different constituencies,rather than divide them,stand a better chance.

This may,in a strange way,also be the implicit message of Banerjee’s victory. Her courage,grit and raw determination have always been exemplary. I was once told by a senior BJP leader that they dare not even think about making inroads into West Bengal,because they were simply too afraid to conduct politics there. Banerjee not only survived a tough political environment; she has beaten the CPM at its own game,in ways that the Congress could not even dream of. She was also helped by the fact that during the last couple of years it seemed like the West Bengal CPM had lost its will to govern. Admittedly,the craving for “poriborton” was so overwhelming that it has swept her to power. But there is one more fact that should not be underestimated. She has,over the last two years,converted the Trinamool from an insurgent party into a genuinely broad-based party that has provided a space for all kinds of new constituencies. The sheer range and diversity of political,intellectual and administrative talent in the party is deeply impressive. Despite the fact that her political breakthrough came in the Singur agitations,she has been careful not to become a polarising figure; all kinds of sections have become more comfortable with her. If she can unleash the long suppressed talent in Bengal,and use her political capital to navigate contradictions rather than exacerbate them,there is no stopping West Bengal. It is too early to pass judgment on what her rule will be like. But there is good reason to be confident that in the end,Indian democracy,for all its faults,educates its leaders into moderation.

What will be the consequences of this election? For each of the individual states in question the results are likely to be for the better. It will depend on what lessons both victors and losers take from this outcome. But one thing is clear. Indian politics is an entirely open field of possibilities. If the Congress is vulnerable in Andhra,it changes the arithmetical possibilities dramatically. The impending demise of regional parties has been hugely exaggerated. It is also good for Indian democracy that the Left put up a good show in Kerala. It gives the party enough of a leg to stand on and keep alive a voice than needs to be heard,if not heeded. Hopefully it will learn the lesson that an old style,genuinely political leadership will serve its cause better than JNU mandarins. The Congress may be exulting in the fact that the DMK’s loss may give it more leverage over its allies. But this would be a mistake. If the Congress continues to appear to be close to the DMK,it will lose more in terms of its image than it will gain in tactical terms.

There is great uncertainty looming over the horizon. Let us not forget the fact that “administrative” events like an odd CAG report can transform the political mood and calculations immeasurably. Politics can also be easily thrown off rail by any one of the countless politically significant court cases in the Supreme Court. And,as in Singur,agitational politics can acquire a momentum of its own. With politics in UP opening up,there is going to be immense uncertainty in the days ahead. There will be no structural logic that will determine the outcomes; politics will remain hostage to contingency. We are also living in times where no simple ideological polarities will work: aam admi versus industry,rural versus urban,caste versus class,aspiration versus welfare,poor versus rich. The economic forces that shape the life chances of voters are far too complicated for such dichotomies. Political possibilities will be shaped by those who can combine leadership and judgment. If any party becomes complacent or arrogant,or too clever by half,the Indian voter will show them who has the last word.

The writer is president,Centre for Policy Research,Delhi