The growth in industrial output during February slipped to 3.6 per cent against 15.1 per cent during the same period last year,dragged down by a dismal performance of mining and manufacturing sector along with a continued contraction in capital goods.
Experts say that the central bank is expected to maintain a hawkish stand on monetary policy as inflation hovers above comfort level.
According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figures released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI),production in the mining sector grew by a meagre 0.6 per cent compared with a staggering 11 per cent during the same period a year ago,while the manufacturing sector grew by 3.5 per cent against 16.1 per cent during the year ago period.
Electricity generation also grew by 6.7 per cent in February compared with 7.3 per cent during the year ago period. Experts say a high base effect and decline in investment were main reasons for lower-than-expected IIP figures and it would remain so for a couple of months.
Financial services firm Nomura said the industrial sector is currently in a mid-cycle slowdown owing to high input costs,tighter financial conditions and supply-side constraints.
According to Deputy Chairman,Plan Panel,Montek Singh Ahluwalia,the fall in the industrial output will not impact the countrys GDP growth rate,estimated at 8.6 per cent for 2010-11,because of good agriculture growth.
Chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu does not expect IIP in March to be good but he expects a big turnaround in April. Crisil principle economist DK Joshi said that industrial growth may pick up by April or May.
Meanwhile,the IIP for January 2011,has been revised upwards to 3.95 per cent,from 3.7 per cent. During the April-February period of 2010-11,industrial growth slowed to 7.8 per cent from 10 per cent in the same period last financial year.
During February,capital goods contracted by 18.4 per cent as against an expansion of 46.7 per cent in February,2010. However,production in the consumer non-durables segment went up by 6.1 per cent during the month under review. It had contracted by 0.8 per cent in the same period of 2010. Overall consumer goods reported a rise of 11.1 per cent as against 6.3 per cent in February last year.
Rise and fall
* Manufacturing sector grew by 3.5% against 16.1% during the year ago period
* Electricity generation also grew by 6.7% compared with 7.3% during the year ago period
* Capital goods contracted by 18.4% as against 46.7%
* Intermediate goods and basic goods also fell to 8.4% and 5.9% compared with 15.9% and 8.5% respectively