Days after a watchful world, represented by over 1,000 international poll observers, heaved a sigh of relief over the successful conduct of elections to the constituent assembly in Nepal, an uneasy fear grips this country. It has to do with the almost certain prospect of the ‘terrorists’ of yesteryear coming to power.

The results were apparently beyond the calculations of not only most Nepal watchers, but of the Maoists themselves. Up until the last moment, the Maoists were trying to secure support from the Nepali Congress as well as the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) to ensure their (Maoists’) victory in at least 35 places. Reportedly, Nepal’s erstwhile ‘Big Two’ turned them down, saying it’s too late now.

But what could have contributed to such a result in which the Maoists punched a humiliating defeat to the top two and established themselves as Party Number One?

The United States is dumbfounded. The party and people on its ‘terrorist list’ are most likely going to form the government in a country where America has a substantial stake. Indian ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, whose ‘brief’ to Delhi on the likely results has proved to be inaccurate, met Prachanda on April 13 to assure all cooperation from India. The assurance had become necessary as only a few days ago, M.K. Narayanan, security advisor to the prime minister, not only stated that India would want to welcome G.P. Koirala as Nepal’s new prime minister, but he also gave the impression that it would not feel comfortable with Prachanda in the same place. Moreover, India has not only failed in its assessment of the overall politics and likely poll outcome, it has also ended up backing the Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP) at the cost of the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) that has now emerged as the biggest party in the Terai areas adjoining India.

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