The last three decades have seen the ouster from power of several entrenched authoritarian rulers around the world. The process of political change at the end of a dictatorship in most cases falls into two broad categories: the blood-in-the-streets outcome or the negotiated transition scenario.

In the first case, disillusionment with the autocrat leads to civil disturbance or mass protests. The successor regime is not guaranteed to be more democratic or inclusive than the outgoing one. In the second situation, a weakened regime negotiates a transition that protects some of the interests of its leading members but allows a new, usually more representative, government to emerge.

As General Pervez Musharraf’s grip on power slips, Pakistanis are contemplating the most effective way for the restoration of democracy. Given the pervasiveness of the military in Pakistan’s politics there is a widely expressed desire to ensure that Musharraf’s relinquishing of power should not be under circumstances that allow the military to continue to dabble in politics.

There is a widespread desire for systemic change. Former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, has been allowed by the Supreme Court to return from exile, and he seems to believe that upon returning home he can bring the masses into the streets and force Musharraf’s resignation. The “let nobody talk to Musharraf and thereby oust the dictator” crowd is ecstatic. Sharif’s “courage” in deciding to return home, face the threat of arrest and challenge military rule is being praised on TV talk shows and in newspaper columns.

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