Opinion Maps for lost parties
Why this schizophrenic response to the Lefts poll reversals?
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Dickens and the best-of-times,worst-of-times quote is clichéd. However,most people who quote it do not remember the complete quote. It was the best of times,it was the worst of times,it was the age of wisdom,it was the age of foolishness,it was the epoch of belief,it was the epoch of incredulity,it was the season of Light,it was the season of Darkness,it was the spring of hope,it was the winter of despair,we had everything before us,we had nothing before us,we were all going direct to heaven,we were all going direct the other way. In describing West Bengal today,there is no quote more apt,especially sentences beyond best-of-times,worst-of-times.
There is a cusp,reminiscent of 1977. With antipathy and popular backlash against the Congress in 1977,the Left Front came to power and West Bengals politics was never the same again. In 2006,out of 294 seats,the Left Front won 233,Trinamool and its allies 30 and Congress and its allies 24. Despite pressures,it is unlikely the next round of elections will be in 2010. And 2011 wont be 2006. It will be more like 1977,with the anti-Congress backlash replaced by an anti-Left Front backlash. Though there is friction between the Trinamool and Congress,that alliance will probably hold till 2011. If the 2009 Lok Sabha or the recent by-election results are replicated,Trinamool-Congress should sweep 2011 with a two-thirds majority.
Even if two-thirds doesnt happen,ouster of the Left Front is certain and its leadership seems reconciled to that prospect,especially after municipal and assembly by-elections. The Left does have a useful role to play. It sometimes,though not always,asks the right questions,although invariably it comes up with wrong answers. Some core support for Left will always remain in West Bengal (and Kerala and Tripura) and being out of power will be a useful detoxification exercise,cleansing the party of corruption and hoodlums,what the Left describes as the lumpen proletariat. That explains the spring-of-hope and season-of-light mindset. In all this uncertainty,there is near certainty about who will form the next government and be the next chief minister. The light at the end of the tunnel can instead be the light of a train coming from the opposite direction. Thats a quote ascribed to many people,including Winston Churchill. Apparently,someone has also calculated the odds. When you see a light inside a tunnel,six times out of 11,it is the light of a train and only five times out of 11 has the tunnel ended. That explains the winter-of-despair and season-of-darkness mindset.
Yes,there will be political change in 2011. Will that necessarily lead to economic change? A cusp is like a point of inflection in mathematics,where the curve changes shape. However,that change in shape can be in either direction. Whatever economic indicator is used,West Bengals position in any inter-state comparison is just about average,with a slide since the mid-1960s. This is especially marked since 2003,when many states jacked up their growth trajectories and West Bengals agriculture-based growth petered out. Whether it is agriculture,industry or services,there is no denying West Bengals potential,drawing on geography,natural resources and human capital. For that potential energy to become kinetic,one needs transformation in land,labour and capital markets,and increases in productivity,with infrastructure thrown in. What is sometimes not appreciated outside West Bengal is that there has been a flowering of entrepreneurship since the early 1990s,unnoticed because it is small-ticket and small-time entrepreneurship. The creation of a facilitating environment requires reduction in state intervention and efficiency in existing public expenditure. The red corner hasnt been able to deliver on this. If there is expectation combined with uncertainty in West Bengal today,thats because one isnt sure if the blue corner of the Trinamool will deliver.
Trinamools has been the classic opposition position. Can a party of opposition become a party of government? There has been no call yet for Trinamool to formulate a reform blueprint for the state. The party can legitimately claim the benefit of doubt. However,there is enough fragmentary evidence to suggest that on economic reform issues,there is little to differentiate the ideology of Tweedledum from that of Tweedledee. Even if such a reform blueprint were to be formulated,will Left opposition allow this to be implemented? If Bihar can change,why cant West Bengal? Thats not quite a rhetorical question,because politics in the two states are different. There is an issue somewhat distinct from traditional economic reform agendas and that is supplanting of governance and administration by the party system. Even if this can be reversed,without implementing core economic reforms,incremental growth will follow. Indeed,Bihars change can be interpreted as one of improved administrative delivery and governance. Three decades and more of Left politics in West Bengal has consistently undermined institutions,including those of democracy. Thus,even if Trinamool opposes privatisation,industry and changes in land
usage,there is scope.
Unfortunately,there are question marks there too. Defeat of the Left in West Bengal requires appropriation of Left politics and instruments used to destroy institutions. It requires co-opting of what the Left calls the lumpen. At least in some parts of West Bengal,Trinamool has been able to accomplish that. Had that not been the case,there would have been no violence. Consequently,there is little differentiation there too and the Tweedledum-Tweedledee image gets reinforced. If one talks to people from West Bengal today,one notices a curious phenomenon. Non-residents and non-Bengalis are much more optimistic about West Bengals future,circa 2011,than resident Bengalis are. That may be because resident Bengalis have become so hardened by TINA (there is no alternative) that they refuse to believe that change is imminent until change actually occurs. Alternatively,resident Bengalis may appreciate the Tweedledum-Tweedledee nuance better than others do. They report a refrain among Trinamool cadres (not leaders): they looted for thirty years,it is our turn now.
With a cleansing of the Left,perhaps a cleansing of the Trinamool will occur. Perhaps Trinamool will merge with the Congress and deliver a credible alternative in West Bengal,an unlikely scenario today. Perhaps the Congress,alone,will emerge as a credible alternative,an even more unlikely scenario today. Thats the reason there is schizophrenia,rejoicing at Lefts certain ouster,but scepticism about what will follow. Cleansing and credibility require a churning and post-2011,only that is certain. As always,order eventually emerges out of chaos. But for the moment,there is purgatory.
The writer is a Delhi-based economist
express@expressindia.com
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