Dickens and the best-of-times, worst-of-times quote is clichéd. However, most people who quote it do not remember the complete quote. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way.” In describing West Bengal today, there is no quote more apt, especially sentences beyond best-of-times, worst-of-times.

There is a cusp, reminiscent of 1977. With antipathy and popular backlash against the Congress in 1977, the Left Front came to power and West Bengal’s politics was never the same again. In 2006, out of 294 seats, the Left Front won 233, Trinamool and its allies 30 and Congress and its allies 24. Despite pressures, it is unlikely the next round of elections will be in 2010. And 2011 won’t be 2006. It will be more like 1977, with the anti-Congress backlash replaced by an anti-Left Front backlash. Though there is friction between the Trinamool and Congress, that alliance will probably hold till 2011. If the 2009 Lok Sabha or the recent by-election results are replicated, Trinamool-Congress should sweep 2011 with a two-thirds majority.

Even if two-thirds doesn’t happen, ouster of the Left Front is certain and its leadership seems reconciled to that prospect, especially after municipal and assembly by-elections. The Left does have a useful role to play. It sometimes, though not always, asks the right questions, although invariably it comes up with wrong answers. Some core support for Left will always remain in West Bengal (and Kerala and Tripura) and being out of power will be a useful detoxification exercise, cleansing the party of corruption and hoodlums, what the Left describes as the lumpen proletariat. That explains the spring-of-hope and season-of-light mindset. In all this uncertainty, there is near certainty about who will form the next government and be the next chief minister. The light at the end of the tunnel can instead be the light of a train coming from the opposite direction. That’s a quote ascribed to many people, including Winston Churchill. Apparently, someone has also calculated the odds. When you see a light inside a tunnel, six times out of 11, it is the light of a train and only five times out of 11 has the tunnel ended. That explains the winter-of-despair and season-of-darkness mindset.

... contd.