Opinion Marking the Middle Way

An important dimension of the Dalai Lama’s idea of autonomy was — and remains — to unite under a single administrative entity all the areas populated by ethnic Tibetans. He wants the regions of Amdo and Kham — presently under four different provinces of China — to be integrated with the Tibetan Autonomous Region. His stance reflects his conception of the Middle Way as a means of preserving Tibetan identity and culture — issues he thinks are particularly relevant to the Tibetans’ situation. In any case,other minority nationalities in China,the Uighurs and Mongols for instance,govern themselves within a single autonomous region.

The Chinese,however,claim that the Dalai Lama’s demand is tactical. The creation of an autonomous “Greater Tibet” would only pave the way for eventual independence. They insist that he must not only renounce independence,but also accept that Tibet has always been part of China. The Tibetans are unwilling to do so,as it might further undercut their case for autonomy. The Dalai Lama has sought to side-step this issue by emphasising the need to look ahead to the future rather than back to the past. But Beijing remains unyielding. Indeed,China’s suspicion of the Dalai Lama has deepened in the last three years. It saw the unrest in Tibet and elsewhere in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics as masterminded by him. The Chinese media unleashed a vitriolic attack on the “Dalai clique”. Subsequent efforts to revive the dialogue have not yielded any result. It seems reasonable to conclude that the Chinese are only interested in dragging out the negotiations. They believe that once the Dalai Lama passes on,the Tibetan cause will lose its momentum. It will at once be deprived of a venerated leader and of his charismatic appeal to international audiences. The Dalai Lama is not oblivious of these assumptions. His decision to hand over political leadership of the government-in-exile stems from his desire to ensure that the Tibetan movement does not remain entirely associated with his own persona and that a credible leadership takes over in his lifetime.

But the move is also aimed at ensuring that his approach — the Middle Way — remains the roadmap for the Tibetan community. In his recent statement,the Dalai Lama strongly affirmed his belief in the Middle Way and in non-violent change. For some years now,the Tibetan Youth Congress’s stance has differed from that of the Dalai Lama. The youth groups demand independence for Tibet and oppose the idea of autonomy under the Chinese constitution. Some of them are also opposed to ruling out armed resistance against the Chinese. China’s stonewalling has merely reinforced the views of the more militant factions. They see the Dalai Lama’s diplomatic posture as at best ineffectual. The divide amongst the Tibetan émigrés is evident. In November 2008,the Dalai Lama brought together different voices from the community of exiles to discuss the way forward. The final statement of the meeting came out in support of the Middle Way; but also conceded that if there was no progress towards autonomy,the objective could be shifted to independence.

The Indian government must watch these developments carefully. Since 1954,New Delhi has consistently held that Tibet is a region of China. It does not recognise the government-in-exile. Given China’s sensitivity about Tibet,it will be tricky for India to take any stance on the recent developments. Yet,Tibet remains the one issue that could produce a sharp downswing in Sino-Indian relations. India may be able to duck the question of the political leadership of the government-in-exile. But the larger challenge will be the choice of the next Dalai Lama. He has himself aired several possibilities. The Chinese are already edgy on this issue. It is bound to be a difficult and contested question with claims and counter-claims from both sides. If India wants to avoid being caught out by a crisis,it should think creatively about bridging the prevailing mistrust between the Tibetan and Chinese authorities.

The hands-off approach hitherto adopted by us may not be useful in the turbulent times that lie ahead.

Raghavan is the author of ‘War and Peace in Modern India’ express@expressindia.com