The Bahujan Samaj Party has emerged as a clear front-runner in the first three phases of the ongoing Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. The findings of The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey indicate that the BSP’s lead over its rivals may be bigger than suggested by various exit polls. If this trend continues in the remaining phases, the BSP may be the only serious contender for government formation in what is likely to be another hung Assembly.

The picture has thus changed significantly since the pre-poll survey when it appeared like a two-horse race between the SP and the BSP, with the BJP and Congress falling off the chart.

We now estimate that the BSP has secured 28 per cent of the votes polled so far in the three phases. The BJP has improved its position in the last one month to reach 23 per cent and the Samajwadi Party has slipped behind to 22 per cent votes. The Congress trails way behind with only nine per cent votes so far. If we compare this with the situation in these areas in the Assembly election of 2002, the BSP has gained six per cent votes at the cost of everyone else.

A lead of five percentage points over the nearest rival may appear a tiny lead. But in a four-way contest, this could give the BSP a disproportionately large number of seats.

Of the 177 seats where the elections have been held so far, the BSP is likely to win 66-70 seats, about 20 short of the half-way mark. The BJP and the SP lag considerably behind and are likely to win 40-44 seats. The SP has lesser votes than the BJP but its votes are more concentrated. Compared to the performance of various parties in 2002, this represents a major boost for the BSP and a big setback for the SP in some of its strongholds.

... contd.