Meanwhile, Mayawati’s distancing from the deal, has won her some friends in the state. “The BSP stands to gain and will get a major chunk of the Muslim votes,” says Hafiz Nomania, a political analyst.

Mayawati’s overtures to the Muslims began much before the talk over the nuclear deal turned into a slanging match. Crafting coalitions, after all, has become her greatest strength. From advocating a Bahujan samaj to building bridges with Brahmins and upper castes, Mayawati’s evolving equations ended in her triumph last year.

Not only did Mayawati include Brahmins in her coalition, but she also cut into the vote bank of the secular parties in the state and cornered the Muslim vote. For the Assembly elections in 2007, the BSP fielded 61 Muslim candidates, of whom 29 won. The Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, fielded 56, of whom 21 won became MLAs.

Giving tickets to a bigger number of Muslims, according to political watchers, was what won her the community’s support. Her stand on the nuclear deal could further consolidate her position. But some say talk of the impact of the nuclear deal on electoral chances is exaggerated. Says Ashutosh Mishra, a political analyst and professor of political science in Lucknow University, “This is a temporary phase and is hardly likely to impact the electoral politics of the state.”

In the end it may all boil down to numbers. The party that fields the maximum number of Muslim candidates can perhaps hope for maximum support. “Mayawati is more comfortably placed in granting tickets to any community than Mulayam as she is the leader of largest social group—Dalits—while Mulayam is the leader of a confederation where his committed vote bank is only 6-7 per cent Yadavs and few other OBC communities,” says Mishra.

... contd.