After the success of Sarv Samaj rhetoric — during the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in 2007 — that increased Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) vote share, Mayawati has started expanding beyond the state. To begin with, she is trying to move out to new states — her recent rally in Bhopal is an example — and, secondly, by mooting the idea of trifurcating UP, she hopes to have a political sway over more than one state. In a country where parties are popularly assessed as “national” according to the number of states they have a strong presence in, the trifurcation idea might just work for her.

All the four regions of present-day UP have a sizeable Dalit population with a uniform spread. The SC population in central UP, Bundelkhand, Poorvanchal and western UP are 26.1 per cent, 25.14 per cent, 21.15 per cent and 18.17 per cent, respectively. These are all higher than the national average of 16.2 per cent and three of these are higher than the 21.1 per cent SC population in the entire UP. Thus, if Mayawati gets her social combinations right, she has a fair chance in all the states formed after the possible trifurcation of UP.

In the Madhya Pradesh part of Bundelkhand region, Datia has MP’s highest SC population at 24.67 per cent. Interestingly, the BJP may be headed for a decline in MP’s Bundelkhand as its firebrand OBC leader Uma Bharati from Tikamgarh is out of the party.

Another important fact is that Mayawati’s lieutenant Naseemuddin Siddiqui is from Banda in Bundelkhand. So he is the natural choice for a possible Bundelkhand chief ministership. Siddiqui is also expected to attract Muslim vote, which right now stays primarily with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP. This way, Mayawati can reward Siddiqui and damage SP at the same time.

... contd.